New Projections: 37K to 124K Physician Shortage by 2034

A new report projects the U.S. will experience a shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2034. What’s driving the shortage, other than COVID-19?

The Association of American Medical Colleges now predicts the United States will experience a shortage of 37,800 to 124,000 doctors by 2034, according to their new report, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2019 to 2034.

The report raises further alarm within the industry, which is still grappling with increased workforce shortages due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some of the report’s key findings and projections include:

  • A primary care physician shortage of between 17,800 and 48,000 by 2034.
  • A shortage of non-primary care specialty physicians of between 21,000 and 77,100 by 2034 including:
    • Between 15,800 and 30,200 for Surgical Specialties.
    • Between 3,800 and 13,400 for Medical Specialties.
    • Between 10,300 and 35,600 for the Other Specialties category.
  • Population growth and aging continue to be the primary source of increasing demand from 2019 to 2034, during which the U.S. population is projected to grow by 10.6%, from about 328.2 million to 363.0 million.
  • Aging is also a factor on the provider side, as well, with more than 40% of currently active physicians turning 65 or older within the next decade.

The report also highlights the short- and long-term consequences the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have on the nation’s physician workforce, including on training, regulation, practice, workforce exits, and many other factors.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted many of the deepest disparities in health and access to health care services and exposed vulnerabilities in the health care system,” said AAMC President and CEO David J. Skorton, MD in a statement released in conjunction with the report. “The pandemic also has underscored the vital role that physicians and other health care providers play in our nation’s health care infrastructure and the need to ensure we have enough physicians to meet America’s needs.”

According to data from our jobs site, California, New York, and Texas are currently seeing the greatest need for physicians.

Disclaimer: The viewpoint expressed in this article is the opinion of the author and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the owners or employees at Healthcare Staffing Innovations, LLC.

NP Workforce, Pay Has Boomed Since 2010

Nurse practitioners have long been touted as a viable solution to the U.S. physician shortage, and it seems as though they are flooding the workforce.

Nurse practitioners have long been touted as one viable solution to physician shortages in the United States, and it seems as though they are flooding the workforce, according to a new study published in Health Affairs.

The study, which was conducted by researchers at Montana State University and Dartmouth College, analyzed NP workforce data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey from 2010 through 2017.

Researchers found that the number of nurse practitioners in the United States more than doubled during that time period, up from 91,000 to 190,000, and that growth primarily occurred in hospitals, physician offices, and outpatient care clinics. It was also found that average earnings grew, as well, spiking in every setting—up from $98,269 to $101,243 in hospitals, $87,443 to $90,475 in physician offices, and $86,565 to $94,560 in outpatient clinics.

The news is not all good, however, and the growth does not come without implications. Researchers also identified that the growing NP workforce has reduced the size of the RN workforce by up to 80,000 nationwide, a field that has been struggling with its own shortages in recent years.

Disclaimer: The viewpoint expressed in this article is the opinion of the author and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the owners or employees at Healthcare Staffing Innovations, LLC.

Physicians vs. Advanced Practitioners: Where Do You Stand?

A battle has been brewing between advanced practitioners seeking to expand their scope of practice and the physicians who oppose them. Where do you stand?

A battle has been brewing within the medical community for quite some time. As the physician workload has steadily multiplied due to physician shortages and increased documentation requirements, advanced practice nurses and physician assistants have upped their fight for full practice authority in an effort to boost productivity, lower health care costs, and increase access to care. This hot-button issue has split the physician community down the middle, into those who are glad for the assistance and those who greatly oppose non-doctors treating patients as if they are doctors. And, lately, for those who oppose APNs and PAs, the gloves have come off, so to speak.

Despite study after study after study after study finding that APNs and PAs provide care comparable to or even better than physicians, multiple doctors have taken to the internet to speak out against expanding their scope of practice.

“With all due respect to our healthcare team, I beg to differ that going through four years of college and completing an additional two years – sometimes online, no less – can truly be “just as effective”,” wrote Starla Fitch, MD, in an op-ed entitled NPs/PAs ‘Just as Effective’ as Physicians? I Don’t Think So.

In another posting, an open letter penned by the Presidents of the American Academy of Emergency Medicine Resident and Student Association directed at the American Medical Association Board of Directors called for the AMA to implement a public awareness campaign that “advocates for physician-led care and educates the public of the discrepancies in nurse practitioner care” and increase “resources on state-level legislative operations that combat independent practice bills introduced by midlevel providers.” The authors of the open letter went on to state, “These efforts should be a priority for the AMA. Waiting for the complete devaluation of our medical degrees and the resulting significant harm to our patients’ safety as they actively pursue less capable “providers” is not acceptable. We must work together to directly combat this pressing issue in order to protect our profession, our future physicians, and most importantly our patients.”

“There are absolutely patient safety concerns associated with NP and PA care. We don’t diminish the fact that physicians make mistakes, of course, but the type of mistake is often very different from those of non-physician practitioners. We have had many physicians and patients share stories with us of missed diagnoses and misdiagnoses by NPs and PAs, as well as excessive and inappropriate testing, prescribing, and treatment,” said another physician—Carmen Kavali, MD, who is also a board member of Physicians for Patient Protection.

There is no shortage of opposition. However, as Alison Moriarty Daley, MSN, APRN, PNP, put it as far back as 2011, “There are too many people who need high-quality, dedicated providers; we are such providers and deserve the appropriate respect, recognition, and support from the healthcare community.”

The physician shortage is not getting any better. The Association of American Medical Colleges predicts a shortage of between 21,100 and 55,200 primary care physicians by 2032, and physicians are burning out and, sadly, dying by suicide at an alarming rate. So, why the fight?

Where do you stand on the issue? Tell us in the comments below.

Disclaimer: The viewpoint expressed in this article is the opinion of the author and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the owners or employees at Healthcare Staffing Innovations, LLC.

Yet Another Physician Speaks Out Against PAs, NPs

As the physician shortage worsens, there is no shortage of physicians speaking out against the idea of PAs and NPs being comparable substitutes.

A physician-penned op-ed published online this week entitled “NPs/PAs ‘Just as Effective’ as Physicians? I Don’t Think So” casts a negative spotlight on PAs and NPs, yet again.

The piece, which was written by Starla Fitch, MD, an ophthalmologist, speaker, and personal coach, brings up the oft talked about physician shortage and all but ridicules the idea of advanced practitioners as a comparable substitute, with Fitch stating in the piece, “With all due respect to our healthcare team, I beg to differ that going through four years of college and completing an additional two years – sometimes online, no less – can truly be “just as effective.””

Fitch takes issue with calling PAs and NPs equal to physicians, but admits support is needed by other members of the healthcare team.

“I’m not arguing against having the support of other healthcare members. Trust me. The shortage is real. And we need to find solutions,” Fitch writes, continuing on to say, “But please don’t say, we are “just as effective.” I realize that there are many duties that nurse practitioners and physician assistants can do with skill and authority. And the reasons why primary care physicians are declining is multifactorial, for sure. As I see it, though, putting physicians and our skill side-by-side, on equal footing, with those who are not physicians only serves to drive a deeper wedge between the healthcare folks who need, at this crucial time, to come together.”

Disclaimer: The viewpoint expressed in this article is the opinion of the author and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the owners or employees at Healthcare Staffing Innovations, LLC.

More Doctors on the Way, as Med School Enrollment Exceeds Goals

As the physician shortage continues, it’s promising to know that medical school enrollment has outpaced growth goals. But the crisis isn’t over quite yet.

Medical school enrollment is not only up, but it has surpassed growth benchmarks set by the Association of American Medical Colleges, according to the results of the AAMC’s 2018 Medical School Enrollment Survey.

In 2006, the AAMC called for a 30% increase in medical school enrollment to help alleviate growing concerns regarding the long-predicted physician shortage. Medical school enrollment has now grown by 31% since 2002, just above the mark, and when combined with schools of osteopathic medicine, enrollment is now 52% higher than it was in 2002. The AAMC ties this growth to a number of factors, including increases in class sizes and the creation of 29 new medical schools.

Though the numbers are promising, concerns still remain high—particularly those regarding the availability of graduate medical education opportunities on state and national levels, as well as the number of clinical training sites and available preceptors. The AAMC is now seeking a shift of focus to increase the number of graduate medical education slots available, as well as calling on Congress to pass the bipartisan Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act.

The full results of the survey can be found here.

Disclaimer: The viewpoint expressed in this article is the opinion of the author and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the owners or employees at Healthcare Staffing Innovations, LLC.

Critical Shortage of Pediatric NPs Looms

With the physician shortage in full swing and not enough PNPs joining the workforce, there is a growing hole in who will care for this nation’s children, with few answers in sight.

There is a serious need for pediatric Nurse Practitioners (PNPs), according to a new white paper published in the Journal of Pediatric Health Care’s most recent issue.

The authors, including Kristin Hittle Gigli, Ph.D., R.N., CPNP-AC, CCRN, of the University of Pittsburgh, and colleagues, report that “despite the specific demand for pediatric care, there is a forecasted critical shortage of PNPs over the next decade.”

This is partly because the amount of PNPs in practice has not grown as rapidly as other disciplines across the NP profession, while physician shortages continue to be problematic. While advanced practitioners are widely believed to be able to close the gap in access to care resulting from the physician shortage, it is estimated that only 8% of the 270,000 licensed NPs in the U.S. are PNPs, while two out of three new NPs entering the workforce reported graduating from family NP (FNP) programs. Although FNPs can care for children, most report their total children account for less than 25% of their total patient population. This leaves a growing hole in who will care for the children of this nation, with few answers in sight.

“Dedicated research into the PNP role, workforce, and care outcomes will address gaps in our knowledge of the role and support the advancement of the profession,” the white paper states. As well as, “when considering possible shortages of PNPs, evaluation of the workforce pipeline and graduate nursing education programs becomes an important factor in mitigating potential shortages,” and goes on to say, “Attention should be focused on updating and expanding knowledge of the state of the PNP workforce to identify areas in practice and policy where interventions will support maximizing the contributions of these providers to high-quality, accessible, and affordable pediatric health care.”

Disclaimer: The viewpoint expressed in this article is the opinion of the author and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the owners or employees at Healthcare Staffing Innovations, LLC.

The Public Is Clearly Confused about PAs and NPs

As the primary care physician shortage looms, and PAs and NPs are constantly called “the answer,” it seems patients are unaware of what they can even do.

Advanced practitioners, particularly PAs and NPs, are often cited as the answer to the looming primary care physician shortage—an estimated deficiency of 49,300 primary care physicians in the U.S. by 2030, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges. However, it appears there is a large amount of public confusion when it comes to the roles of PAs and NPs in primary care, according to a new study, which is to be published next month in the Journal of General Internal Medicine.

For the study, members of the U.S. public in all 50 states were surveyed between November 2017 and January 2018. Participants were asked questions regarding their knowledge of the abilities of physicians, PAs, and NPs to prescribe medications, diagnose illnesses, and order lab tests.

Of the 3,948 respondents, an undisputable majority knew physicians were able to prescribe medications, diagnose illnesses, and order lab tests. However, they were much less well-informed when it came to PAs and NPs. About half were unaware that PAs could prescribe and diagnose, and nearly a third did not know NPs could, and while a higher percentage were aware that PAs and NPs could order lab tests (66% for PAs, 74% for NPs), it was nowhere near the 97% who were aware of physicians’ ability to do the same.

Disclaimer: The viewpoint expressed in this article is the opinion of the author and is not necessarily the viewpoint of the owners or employees at Healthcare Staffing Innovations, LLC.